One of the oldest professions known to mankind is war. Since the advent of pastoral settlements, human beings have taken up arms in one form or another to protect their identities and way of life. From battle formations of infantry to formations of drones, we have come a long way thanks to the brightest minds of our age. The last major overhaul in this aspect happened almost a century ago during the times of the Great War. These then latest tactics have been fine-tuned and put into test two decades later in World War II. The culmination of this war was brought about by the usage of nuclear weapons along with their mass destruction capabilities. Although this period was followed by the advancements in technology and induction of advanced machinery, the strategies employed always mirrored and drew inspiration from the World War II era until 2022, when Russia launched ‘special military operations’ in Ukraine.
The latest turning point was witnessed during the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. The strategies and tactics used in the initial phase of the war were drawn from doctrines inspired by the yesteryears. This would have probably remained the same had it been a conflict between two equal powers. However, this is not. To survive, the lesser economic power had to improvise and improve. Once the realization dawned that Russia cannot be defeated through conventional means, low-cost unmanned aerial platforms were launched to dent and saturate the enemy’s air defence capabilities and keep them occupied with a 24*7 looming threat and the days of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles had begun.
Recent Developments
Suddenly, the skies are filled with a constant hum of drones. Drones are like mosquitoes- small and persistent. Ignoring them would bring about a series of diseases and cataclysms, which would be very difficult to fathom. The breeding grounds are many and well-hidden. The rate of production is phenomenal and is found in poorer countries. However, one factor distinguishes mosquitoes from drones. Drones inflict damage on enemies and enemies alone. Alas! An ideal weapon has been born, one that can reshape the nature of warfare and level the playing field between technologically advanced countries and their less developed counterparts—without ever crossing a border.
The point of not crossing the border seemed lucrative. Since unmanned platforms are undertaking the risk taking and heavy lifting, manned fighters need not cross the border and can operate with stand-off weapons flying in their own airspace. This comforts warring parties that in case of any mishap, the human element can be recovered from within her borders. This appealed to technologically advanced countries. Also, the opportunity to not let their technologies and state-of-the-art machinery cross the border and fall into enemy hands is an added incentive.
Recently, Op Sindoor was launched by India in response to the cowardly attack at Pahalgam by Pakistani-backed non-state actors. This operation witnessed a drastic shift in warfare. Both sides, having started with conventional posture, discarded it immediately. Drones were employed extensively by both sides to gain intelligence about the deployment of other’s air assets. After a certain point, it appeared that the drones had another purpose, too. They were used to deplete the enemy air defence owing to their cheaper cost in comparison to an Air Defence missile, which would home on to it when launched. The battle arena was shaped and worked upon under the constant hum and surveillance of enemy drones and loitering munitions.
Impact
This shift from traditional to drone warfare was sudden and was felt across all sectors instantly. Governments and private companies all over the world started producing combat-ready unmanned drones in huge numbers. Other civilian private companies started modifying and retrofitting the existing drones with explosive payloads, which were hitherto used for agriculture.
Apart from drones, many new players took to the battlefield: surface-to-surface missiles with precision active and passive targeting systems, ECM (Electronic Counter Measures) techniques, modern jamming apparatus and students and ethical hackers with access to advanced computing systems. All this meant that neither of the warring factions was safe, even deep within their borders. The threat is ever-looming and ever-advancing. The evolution of AI systems is making warfare more formidable and deadly than ever before.
Conclusion
A brave prediction was made by Gordon Moore in 1965, which was that computing power would double every two years. As ludicrous as it sounded, it has held true to its words to date. Warfare is undergoing similar changes. It took tens of thousands of years for hunter-gatherer communities to change their style and strategies. It took a thousand years for our dark age ancestors to adapt to iron tools and employ them in fighting wars, a few hundred more for the invention and induction of gunpowder and a hundred more for air power and nuclear weapons to be deployed on the battlefield. Within a few decades, we will be on the cusp of another dramatic change. A change that would force mankind to think outside the box. This change is driven by artificial intelligence and cyber networks. Change is inevitable, and amidst all this chaos, one thing stands tall: adaptability. The civilizations or countries which adapt the fastest shall have the edge and, thereby, validate the most valuable lesson history has taught us. “War never determines who is right. War only determines who is left.”