Hybrid Warfare in the Indian Context
Indian intelligence agencies are tasked with the critical role of identifying, understanding and countering these hybrid threats, requiring them to continuously evolve and adapt their strategies. Hybrid warfare is not a theoretical concept for India; it is a lived reality. From cross-border terrorism to cyber-attacks on critical infrastructure, India has faced various forms of hybrid threats. The 2019 Pulwama attack, where a suicide bomber targeted a convoy of Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) personnel in Jammu and Kashmir, is a stark example. The nature of the attack may well be conventional terrorist, but it was framed in the full strategy that included propaganda and recruiting on social media, encouraged, if not facilitated, by several nation-state backers. This underscores how hybrid warfare confuses the division between state and non-state actors and that between military and non-military means. Cyber warfare is among the most important ingredients of hybrid warfare. Cyber-attacks in India have, over the years, been increasing day by day. Most of these are believed to be state-backed. In 2020, there was a huge cyber-attack on the power grid in Mumbai, which caused a wide-scale blackout. This kind of attack, suspected to be carried out by Chinese hackers, is one of the proofs of the weaknesses of critical infrastructure in India.
This attack was part of an overall plan to put pressure on India, which has been tense along the borders of Ladakh. It emphasises that Indian intelligence agencies need to work harder on increasing their cyber intelligence strength so that these kinds of threats are mitigated and potential adversaries in cyberspace are taken out first. Another feature of hybrid warfare is disinformation campaigns in which India has been a repeated target. It is well-documented how social media has been employed to further disinformation and inflame communal tensions. The most egregious example was during the 2019 general elections when misinformation and fake news spread like wildfire on platforms like WhatsApp and Facebook. These kinds of campaigns are often aimed at polarising voters and disrupting the democratic process.
Indian intelligence agencies have had to develop rather sophisticated counter-disinformation strategies, including monitoring media, fact-checking and public communication efforts, to mitigate the impact of such campaigns. It is now time for some kind of collaborative work between intelligence agencies and social media companies to cut down on the misinformation campaign. Though technology has risen, Human Intelligence (HUMINT) is still irreplaceable in terms of countering hybrid threats, particularly in regions where proxy actors are involved. The northeastern states of India and the Maoist-affected regions have been a hotbed of such threats, where insurgent groups have received help from across borders.
For example, the insurgent groups in the Northeast have found help from across the border in Myanmar and China. Their ability to infiltrate such groups through HUMINT networks has allowed Indian intelligence agencies to obtain crucial information that results in successful counterinsurgency operations. Effective use of HUMINT has helped in the arrest of important insurgent leaders and the disruption of supply lines.
Case Study: Balakot Air Strikes
The Balakot airstrikes of 2019 provide a compelling example of how Indian intelligence agencies have adapted to counter hybrid threats. Following the Pulwama attack, Indian intelligence agencies identified the location of a Jaish-e-Mohammed training camp in Balakot, Pakistan. The decision to carry out an airstrike was based on precise intelligence, which ensured that the target was hit without causing civilian casualties. This operation demonstrated the ability of Indian intelligence to gather actionable intelligence in hostile environments and the importance of interagency coordination between intelligence and military forces. The Balakot strikes also served as a strategic message, showing that India could respond to hybrid threats with a combination of military precision and intelligence-driven operations.
Effective counter-hybrid warfare strategies require enhanced interagency cooperation within India. Intelligence agencies cannot operate in isolation; they must work closely with the armed forces, law enforcement and various government departments to ensure a coordinated and comprehensive response to hybrid threats. The National Security Council (NSC) in India has played a pivotal role in this regard, acting as a central body for coordinating efforts across various agencies. This interagency cooperation was evident in the aftermath of the Balakot strikes, where intelligence, military and diplomatic efforts were synchronised to manage the international fallout and reinforce India’s position on the global stage.
Conclusion
As the nature of warfare continues to evolve, India’s intelligence agencies must remain agile, innovative and resilient. The battle against hybrid threats is not only about reacting to attacks as they happen but also about anticipating and preventing them. By investing in cutting-edge technologies, fostering interagency collaboration and continuously adapting to new and emerging threats, India’s intelligence agencies can play a pivotal role in safeguarding national security in this complex and uncertain era. In this new age of warfare, Indian intelligence agencies are not merely the first line of defence; they are the architects of the nation’s security strategy, shaping the future of India’s defence in the 21st century. Through examples like the Pulwama attack, cyber threats to critical infrastructure and the Balakot airstrikes, it is clear that Indian intelligence agencies are already deeply engaged in the fight against hybrid warfare and their role will only become more critical in the years to come.