COVID 19 and its Socio Political Implications in India and Globally.

COVID -19 and its geopolitical implications across India and world at large will depend upon the root cause of this virus and 100% proven vaccine available to most of the people at reasonable price.

Till we succeed in both the parameters mentioned above, the only alternatives are what we have been following since last few months like distancing, mask, sanitizer, use most of the items after washing especially eatables, partial as well as periodic lock down. Presently this is just a shot in the dark but at the cost of economic loss. There are 2 scenarios to be considered.

If we (any country in the world) are able to find the real reason and a vaccine, then things will be normal as it was 2 months back (however depending upon the root cause). If the cause is natural, the source of the same will be eliminated. In case the virus was created in a lab as suspected by some,  then the country where it originated artificially will be isolated and the main target for claims against human and economic losses several countries have faced. This could be a point of serious dispute even giving rise to WWIII with consequences beyond any one can imagine today.

If the very cause and vaccine is not found in the near future and only distancing is the alternative left along with the mask and sanitizer then our total lifestyle will have to be changed and will have a major economic impact as follows.

The way schools are run today, style will have to be changed since it will not be possible among students to maintain distance in the classrooms or during play and hardly 50% students can be accommodated  in the given class room. It will be next to impossible to monitor the mask and sanitization for every student. Their school bus strength will be limited to maximum 50% of current strength & more no of buses. This will upset the economics of school and may lead to a very heavy increase in fees and or start distance education. Government will have to amend the laws accordingly and will have to approve such systems and degrees. Only for practical in school or colleges students will be called in some batches. This will help in the sharp rise of sale of computers, laptops, ipads, handsets etc.

Most of the tours and travel companies will have huge setbacks as most of them will have to restrict their operation only within their own country. International travel will be reduced drastically. Most of the countries will have very strict restrictions in allowing people from other nationals in their country unless otherwise absolutely essential.

It will also effect on various offices and factories where people work in close vicinity, shops and restaurants with limited space, hawkers will have free hand but they too will have to stand at a distance. Masks may not be possible in certain heavy physical work where heavy breathing is must.

Most of the business may not be viable because of space constraints, limited people and less turn over. Population control will be given highest priority similar to what China did 40 years back. There will be no strikes and everyone will have to work much longer, harder and with less income. Almost everyone will be miser in their approach and will buy only if absolutely essential.

Public functions, processions, strikes, religious & social functions, sport events will be out of fashion. Habit of people staying in congested areas will be wiped out including common facilities like water and toilets and people will start staying in larger houses. Real Estates Property rates will crash all over the world. But the cybercrime rate will be at its peak. Most of the transactions are through e-commerce, which will help to reduce black money and corruption.

Author: Mukund Puranik
The Author is B.E. (Mechanical),M.Tech. (Machine Tools) and Chartered Engineer with an experience of 35+ years in the field of Machinery Industries. The major areas of his specialisation are Valuation (P&M) and Consultancy. Currently, he is a Proprietor of Universal Engineering Consultants