CoVID Management

Prime Minister Modi announced the second Lockdown Period and an extension of prohibitory measures by another 19 days. India will remain under lockdown until 3rd May till further notice.

The PM had also said that, from 20 April, based on extensive scrutiny, a conditional withdrawal of the lockdown will be permitted in areas where the spread has either been contained or prevented

Since the growth in hotspots would create further challenges, in the next week, we will step up our fight and scrutiny of the entire country will be stepped up,” he had said.

For ease of analysis we may categorise the areas in four categories as given below

Top Category (Maximum infection. More than 100 cases)

Medium Category (25 to 99 cases)

(The Author is former National Director General NYKS, Ministry of Youth Affairs and Sports, Government of India. Presently he is the Senior Vice President of Global Economist Forum of ECOSOC, United Nations)

Prime Minister Modi announced the second Lockdown Period and an extension of prohibitory measures by another 19 days. India will remain under lockdown until 3rd May till further notice.

The PM had also said that, from 20 April, based on extensive scrutiny, a conditional withdrawal of the lockdown will be permitted in areas where the spread has either been contained or prevented

Since the growth in hotspots would create further challenges, in the next week, we will step up our fight and scrutiny of the entire country will be stepped up,” he had said.

For ease of analysis we may categorise the areas in four categories as given below

Top Category (Maximum infection. More than 100 cases)

Medium Category (25 to 99 cases)

Low Category ( 01 to 24 cases)

Clear Category (Nil cases so far)

Then out of 717 Districts of India –

21 Districts fall in the Top Category. These have 53 % of the overall cases of India and account for about 68 % deaths.

86 Districts fall in the Medium Category with 31 % cases and 20% deaths

290 Districts fall in the Low Category, 16 % cases and 12 % deaths And

318 Districts fall in the Clear Category with nil cases so far

Almost all the Top category districts, which have maximum cases belong to the more urbanized and better off States viz Delhi, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Telangana and Tamilnadu.

Union Government, Ministry of Health had said that it has identified 170 districts as hotspots of novel coronavirus outbreak and 207 districts as non-hotspots while the rest have been categorised as green zones. Hotspots are the districts where the absolute number of Covid-19 cases reported are high or the rate of growth of positive cases is high. Whereas, non-hotspots are the areas that have reported cases of Covid-19 but the number is limited. Green zone districts are where no case of novel coronavirus has been reported.

PM Modi had said “In areas where hotspots do not manifest and in those which have contained them, a conditional withdrawal of lockdown could be considered.

Every town, every police station, every district, every state was to be evaluated in terms of how the lockdown is being implemented and how that region has protected itself from corona virus.

As it appears from the above data, Hotspots or infection clusters across India have risen, complicating the government’s efforts to contain the spread of Covid-19.

To make matters worse, 170 districts now have such hotspots, out of these more than 125 districts are also major manufacturing hubs of the country. In addition there are 207 other Non-hotspot but areas of concern as they have confirmed cases, though in smaller numbers. This is posing difficulties as there is high expectation from the business owners as well as political leaders and in some cases the administration itself is keen in reopening factories quickly for various reasons.

Since it was stated that those who pass this test, and who are not in these hotspots with a low likelihood of turning into a hotspot may be allowed certain essential activities, there is a strong possibility of the reports and figures being controlled in order to get their respective jurisdictions declared fit for opening up.

It was expected that the States and District Administration’s will go all out to ensure effective implementation of the lockdown on one hand to prevent any movement or migration to control the spread of the Corona Virus and take all measures to track people with travel or contact history and those identified having symptoms to carry out quarantine, screening and testing on the other hand with a view to ensure containment and treatment of confirmed cases.

The lockdown 2.0 has continued as was lockdown 1.0. Additional measures to enforce measures more strictly have been visible in few cases, on the other hand complacency seemed to have set in few areas.

How much the scrutiny was stepped up cannot be stated with any degree of certainty as most districts seem to be not as much aware or serious as others.

A few officers have stated on conditions of anonymity that they are expected to under report facts and manage their area. Few others have mentioned that they haven’t received specific mandatory directives in this regard from their State Governments and that if the centre issues specific directives and starts a daily monitoring the control over the situation could be better managed.

As regards the availability of labs, technicians and kits for testing also, there is a need for greater transparency, professionalism and monitoring required for ensuring quality control, requisite availability and increasing screening and testing.

A system of incentives and penalties with transparent and objective monitoring including future spurt related heavy penalties may be useful in enhancing result oriented and outcomes based Covid-19 management system.

Whereas the Union Government Ministry of Health had mentioned about the States were told about large outbreak containment strategies, cluster containment strategies. Delineation of buffer and containment zone, parameter mapping, defining of entry and exit points were also discussed in detail, but whether these aspects have been factored as parameters for scrutiny and categorisation of districts is not clear.

Similarly the Government spokesman mentioned about special teams to search for new cases and samples be collected and tested as per sampling criteria on one hañd and facilities in buffer zone outside the containment zone be oriented and people facing SARI and influenza-like symptoms will be tested there on the other hand. However, the extent, efficiency and results of tracking and testing and its progress in terms of pendant on any account, whether included in the parameters is unclear.

It is felt that the above issues and issues related to the availability of testing facilities including technicians and kits, medical, technical, paramedic and support staff, quarantine facilities, hospitals, PPE, ventilators all essential equipment, an efficient public information system, prevention of poor and migrant population and effective system to prevent non-essential movement or crowding, as well as their efficient on ground implementation need to be factored as parameters for scrutiny, and management of Covid-19 for appropriate objective assessment as this is a matter of numerous lives and a minor slip could render the efforts and sacrifices of millions of people meaningless.

Since as per available reports the testing has been uneven across the country, it is difficult to say to what extent the reporting of cases across regions reflects actual incidence, and to what extent it reflects the scale of testing. If the extent of under-reporting is not high and the confirmed cases reflect the true spread of Covid-19 in India, it could simply imply the better management of the corona virus infection curve

For ensuring the success of the Modi plan, it is essential to have a completed matrix for scrutiny for a fool proof assessment, containment and activating support and contingency plans for complete success in keeping the curve manageable.

At the same time it is essential to have a robust communication system to create awareness among people about the dos and don’ts in the different stages in different areas as well as to ensure planned essential movement only and prevent any happening due to inadequate knowledge or misunderstanding.