Geopolitical Context and Strategic Importance
India’s neighbourhood comprises countries like Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Myanmar and Afghanistan. The region is geographically diverse, spanning from the Himalayas in the north to the Indian Ocean in the south. It is a zone of significant geopolitical interest due to its proximity to critical maritime routes, shared river systems and overlapping ethnic and cultural ties.
For India, maintaining stable and cooperative relationships with its neighbours is crucial for regional security, economic growth and maintaining its influence in the broader Indo-Pacific. However, India’s neighbourhood has seen various challenges, including political instability, terrorism, economic disparities and the strategic influence of external powers like China and the United States.
Key Bilateral Dynamics
- Pakistan: A Complex Relationship
The India-Pakistan relationship has been fraught with tensions, largely due to historical disputes over Kashmir and cross-border terrorism. Despite efforts at dialogue, mutual mistrust remains high and bilateral trade is minimal. The future of this relationship hinges on Pakistan’s approach to terrorism, India’s strategic priorities and the evolving dynamics in Afghanistan. The normalisation of ties would require significant confidence-building measures and a commitment to peaceful dialogue.
2. Nepal: Navigating the Geopolitical Tightrope
Nepal, sharing deep historical, cultural and economic ties with India, has witnessed fluctuating relations with its southern neighbour. Recently, Nepal’s inclination towards China for investment and infrastructure projects has raised concerns in India. The future of India-Nepal relations lies in managing their border disputes amicably, fostering people-to-people connections and deepening economic and cultural cooperation, while respecting Nepal’s sovereignty.
3. Bangladesh: A Model of Regional Cooperation
Bangladesh has emerged as one of India’s key partners in South Asia. Both countries have managed to resolve longstanding issues, such as the Land Boundary Agreement and have strengthened cooperation in areas like counterterrorism, energy and connectivity. The future of India-Bangladesh relations looks promising, provided both nations continue to address challenges like border management and river water sharing with mutual understanding.
4. Sri Lanka: Balancing Relations Amidst Strategic Rivalry
India and Sri Lanka have deep-rooted cultural ties, but their relationship is also shaped by strategic calculations in the Indian Ocean region. China’s growing footprint in Sri Lanka, especially through investments in ports and infrastructure, has added complexity to India’s strategic calculus. To secure a stable future, India must continue to support Sri Lanka’s economic recovery while strengthening defence cooperation and promoting people-to-people engagement.
5. Myanmar: The Gateway to Southeast Asia
India’s relationship with Myanmar is critical for its Act East policy and for maintaining stability in its northeastern states. As Myanmar grapples with political instability following the 2021 military coup, India’s approach has been pragmatic, balancing engagement with the junta while supporting democratic aspirations. Going forward, India’s role in fostering peace in Myanmar and enhancing connectivity through infrastructure projects like the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway will be pivotal.
6. Bhutan: A Relationship of Mutual Trust
India and Bhutan share a unique relationship characterised by mutual trust, economic cooperation and cultural affinity. Bhutan’s strategic location makes it a vital partner in India’s security calculations. As Bhutan faces internal debates about balancing its foreign relations, Ind ia must ensure that economic support and collaborative projects remain strong pillars of their partnership.
7. Maldives: Maritime Security and Strategic Partnerships
Situated in the Indian Ocean, the Maldives is crucial to India’s maritime security interests. In recent years, the two countries have strengthened their defence ties, especially in response to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). India’s investments in infrastructure and its role in counter-terrorism cooperation have fortified this relationship. The future will depend on India’s ability to sustain its economic and security support while respecting the Maldives’ political sovereignty.
Opportunities for Regional Collaboration
The potential for regional collaboration in South Asia is significant. India’s focus on connectivity projects, such as the BBIN (Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal) initiative and the SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) doctrine, aims to foster greater economic integration and maritime security. Furthermore, India’s role in the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) offers opportunities for collaborative growth in trade, energy and disaster management. Climate change is another critical area where regional cooperation is essential. South Asian countries face common environmental challenges, including rising sea levels, glacial melting and extreme weather events. India’s leadership in regional climate initiatives can play a crucial role in fostering sustainable development and resilience-building across the region.
Challenges Shaping the Future
- China’s Expanding Influence China’s strategic investments in South Asian countries, through its Belt and Road Initiative, pose a significant challenge to India’s influence in its neighbourhood. From Pakistan’s Gwadar port to Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port, China’s deepening footprint has implications for regional balance. India’s response, through initiatives like the “Neighborhood First” policy and enhancing its developmental partnerships, will be key in maintaining its strategic primacy.
- Political Instability and Governance Challenges Political instability in countries like Afghanistan and Myanmar directly impacts regional security. India’s engagement with these nations will need to balance diplomatic efforts and humanitarian support while preparing for potential spillovers of extremism or migration.
- Economic Disparities and Developmental Challenges Economic disparities across the region, coupled with challenges like unemployment and poverty, create an environment susceptible to instability. India’s role as a regional economic powerhouse will be crucial in driving development through trade, investments and regional connectivity projects.
- Terrorism and Cross-Border Threats Cross-border terrorism, particularly from Pakistan and radical elements in Afghanistan, remains a critical threat to India’s security. Coordinating counter-terrorism efforts with like-minded neighbours and maintaining robust defence preparedness will be necessary to address these challenges.
Conclusion: A Path Toward Stability and Growth
The future of India’s immediate neighbourhood is shaped by a mix of challenges and opportunities. While there are complex issues that need careful management, there is also great potential for regional integration and growth. India’s approach must be anchored in a strategy that emphasises mutual respect, economic collaboration and a commitment to regional peace and stability. By focusing on economic partnerships, investing in connectivity and maintaining a principled stance on regional issues, India can not only secure its strategic interests but also contribute to a more prosperous and stable South Asia. As the world continues to pivot towards the Indo-Pacific, a stable and cooperative neighbourhood will be integral to India’s vision of a secure and resilient region.