Minsk/Moscow, August 2025 – Russia and Belarus have announced the launch of their next major joint military exercise, Zapad-2025, scheduled to run from September 12–16, 2025. The drills will feature the Oreshnik hypersonic missile and simulated nuclear weapon operations, raising alarm in neighbouring NATO countries and across Europe.

Key Highlights of Zapad-2025

• Dates: September 12–16, 2025
• Participants: Around 13,000 troops from Russia and Belarus
• Weapons Systems: Oreshnik hypersonic missile (nuclear-capable)
• Focus: Strategic deterrence, nuclear weapon simulations, regional defence
• Location: Multiple sites in Belarus and western Russia

Strategic Significance

According to Belarusian Defence Minister Viktor Khrenin, Zapad-2025 is designed to test operational readiness, strategic deterrence, and the deployment of advanced missile systems. The Oreshnik missile, previously used in attacks on Ukraine, is expected to be a centrepiece of the drill. Nuclear simulation exercises will further underscore the show of power.

Belarus insists that the drills are “defensive in nature” and not aimed at any particular country. However, the proximity to NATO borders – including Lithuania, Poland, and Latvia – has prompted concerns of heightened regional tensions.

NATO and Regional Response

NATO allies are closely monitoring the exercise. Poland and Lithuania have already called for enhanced intelligence and surveillance measures, citing parallels with Zapad-2021, which preceded Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

While Belarus has scaled back participation compared to previous Zapad drills – from nearly 200,000 troops in 2021 to just 13,000 in 2025 – defence analysts argue that the inclusion of nuclear simulations makes the exercise symbolically more dangerous.

International Oversight

In compliance with the Vienna Document, Belarus has invited 56 OSCE member states to observe the drills. The move is seen as an attempt to project transparency, though many Western analysts remain sceptical of Moscow and Minsk’s intentions.

Why This Matters

The Zapad-2025 exercise highlights several critical developments:

1.Militarisation of Belarus: The country continues to deepen its military integration with Russia, including the hosting of tactical nuclear weapons.

2. Escalation Risks: Nuclear weapon simulations and hypersonic missile tests escalate fears of potential miscalculations.

3. NATO Security: Bordering nations view Zapad-2025 as a direct challenge to European stability.

Conclusion

Zapad-2025 is not just another military drill—it is a strategic message from Moscow and Minsk. With nuclear simulations and advanced missile systems in play, the exercise signals Russia and Belarus’s determination to project power at a time when European security is already under strain.